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PredictIt

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</style><table class="infobox vcard"><caption class="infobox-title fn org">PredictIt</caption><tbody><tr><td colspan="2" class="infobox-image"><div class="infobox-caption">PredictIt logo</div></td></tr><tr><th scope="row" class="infobox-label"><div style="display: inline-block; line-height: 1.2em; padding: .1em 0;">Type of site</div></th><td class="infobox-data"><a href="Prediction_market" title="Prediction market">Prediction market</a></td></tr><tr><th scope="row" class="infobox-label">Owner</th><td class="infobox-data"><a href="Victoria_University_of_Wellington" title="Victoria University of Wellington">Victoria University of Wellington</a></td></tr><tr><th scope="row" class="infobox-label">URL</th><td class="infobox-data url"><a rel="nofollow" class="external text" href="https://www.predictit.org/">www.predictit.org</a></td></tr><tr><th scope="row" class="infobox-label">Commercial</th><td class="infobox-data">No</td></tr><tr><th scope="row" class="infobox-label">Registration</th><td class="infobox-data">Required for trading</td></tr><tr><th scope="row" class="infobox-label">Launched</th><td class="infobox-data">3 November 2014 (2014-11-03)</td></tr><tr><th scope="row" class="infobox-label">Current status</th><td class="infobox-data category">Partially Operational / In Legal Battle with CFTC. Outcome will determine whether operations fully cease or fully resume.</td></tr></tbody></table>

PredictIt is a <a href="New_Zealand" title="New Zealand">New Zealand</a>-based online <a href="Prediction_market" title="Prediction market">prediction market</a> that offers exchanges on political and financial events.<a href="#cite_note-SPB-1">[1]</a> PredictIt is owned and operated by <a href="Victoria_University_of_Wellington" title="Victoria University of Wellington">Victoria University of Wellington</a><a href="#cite_note-PredictIt_terms-2">[2]</a> with support from <a href="Aristotle%2C_Inc." title="Aristotle, Inc.">Aristotle, Inc.</a><a href="#cite_note-3">[3]</a> The company's office is located in <a href="Washington%2C_D.C." title="Washington, D.C.">Washington, D.C.</a><a href="#cite_note-WSJ-4">[4]</a> Only United States citizens can bet on the site.

The market was initially launched on 3 November 2014.<a href="#cite_note-SPB-1">[1]</a><a href="#cite_note-WSJ-4">[4]</a>

<div class="mw-heading mw-heading2"><h2 id="History">History</h2></div>

PredictIt was first launched on 3 November 2014.<a href="#cite_note-SPB-1">[1]</a> By March 2016, the website had approximately 29,000 active traders.<a href="#cite_note-WSJ_gamble-5">[5]</a> The nonprofit educational project of the Victoria University of Wellington, New Zealand, "had to work around federal laws that prohibit online gambling and govern commodity <a href="Futures_trading" class="mw-redirect" title="Futures trading">futures trading</a>."<a href="#cite_note-stock_market-6">[6]</a> During the <a href="2016_United_States_elections" title="2016 United States elections">2016 United States elections</a>, PredictIt, along with other prediction market websites, received attention from various media outlets.<a href="#cite_note-WSJ_gamble-5">[5]</a><a href="#cite_note-7">[7]</a><a href="#cite_note-8">[8]</a>

<div class="mw-heading mw-heading2"><h2 id="Trading_format">Trading format</h2></div>

PredictIt uses a continuous <a href="Double_auction" title="Double auction">double auction</a> to sell shares for each event in its markets, meaning that for every person who predicts that an event will take place, there must be another person who predicts that it will not. The site groups related predictions into a market.<a href="#cite_note-PredictIt_how-9">[9]</a> Operating expenses are covered by charging a fee of 10% on earnings in excess of the original investment and by charging an additional 5% withdrawal fee.<a href="#cite_note-10">[10]</a> PredictIt has many different categories of markets including questions about the <a href="Biden_administration" class="mw-redirect" title="Biden administration">Biden administration</a>,<a href="#cite_note-11">[11]</a> U.S. elections,<a href="#cite_note-12">[12]</a> <a href="United_States_Congress" title="United States Congress">Congress</a>,<a href="#cite_note-13">[13]</a> state/local elections,<a href="#cite_note-14">[14]</a> and world.<a href="#cite_note-15">[15]</a> Questions vary from asking which <a href="Political_party" title="Political party">political party</a> will win certain elections, which candidate will win, what the margin of victory for the winner will be, and even what the results of future polls on <a href="RealClearPolitics" title="RealClearPolitics">RealClearPolitics</a> and <a href="FiveThirtyEight" title="FiveThirtyEight">FiveThirtyEight</a> will be.<a href="#cite_note-16">[16]</a>

<div class="mw-heading mw-heading2"><h2 id="Data-sharing_program">Data-sharing program</h2></div>

PredictIt offers a data sharing program for members of the academic community. PredictIt has over 160 data partners, including researchers affiliated with <a href="Duke_University" title="Duke University">Duke University</a>, <a href="Harvard_University" title="Harvard University">Harvard University</a>, the <a href="Massachusetts_Institute_of_Technology" title="Massachusetts Institute of Technology">Massachusetts Institute of Technology</a>, the <a href="Oklahoma_State_University" title="Oklahoma State University">Oklahoma State University</a>, the <a href="University_of_Michigan" title="University of Michigan">University of Michigan</a>, the <a href="University_of_Pennsylvania" title="University of Pennsylvania">University of Pennsylvania</a>, the <a href="University_of_Virginia" title="University of Virginia">University of Virginia</a>, and <a href="Yale_University" title="Yale University">Yale University</a>.<a href="#cite_note-17">[17]</a>

<div class="mw-heading mw-heading2"><h2 id="Regulation">Regulation</h2></div>

Victoria University of Wellington secured a <a href="No-action_letter" title="No-action letter">no-action letter</a> from the <a href="Commodity_Futures_Trading_Commission" title="Commodity Futures Trading Commission">Commodity Futures Trading Commission</a> (CFTC),<a href="#cite_note-CFTCrelease-18">[18]</a> eliminating the risk of <a href="Prosecution" class="mw-redirect" title="Prosecution">prosecution</a> for illegal <a href="Online_gambling" title="Online gambling">online gambling</a>.<a href="#cite_note-Politico-19">[19]</a> In order to secure the no-action letter, each question is limited to 5,000 traders, and there is an $850 cap on individual investments per question.<a href="#cite_note-PredictIt_terms-2">[2]</a> These restrictions are modeled after the <a href="Iowa_Electronic_Markets" title="Iowa Electronic Markets">Iowa Electronic Markets</a>, which previously secured a no-action letter from the Commodity Futures Trading Commission.<a href="#cite_note-Politico-19">[19]</a> However, there are differences in the restrictions between the two markets.<a href="#cite_note-CFTCrelease-18">[18]</a>

<div class="mw-heading mw-heading3"><h3 id="2022_CFTC_Action_letter">2022 CFTC Action letter</h3></div>

On 4 August 2022, the CFTC announced that Victoria University has not operated PredictIt in compliance with the terms of the no-action letter and as a result the no-action letter had been withdrawn. The CFTC stated that all related and remaining listed contracts and positions on PredictIt should be closed out and/or liquidated no later than 11:59 p.m. (EDT) on 15 February 2023.<a href="#cite_note-20">[20]</a> In September 2022, PredictIt and <a href="Aristotle%2C_Inc." title="Aristotle, Inc.">Aristotle International</a> filed suit against the CFTC in the <a href="United_States_District_Court_for_the_Western_District_of_Texas" title="United States District Court for the Western District of Texas">U.S. District Court for the Western District of Texas</a> to block the action.<a href="#cite_note-21">[21]</a> On 26 January 2023, the Fifth Circuit granted a temporary injunction allowing PredictIt to continue operating while the court considered further term relief for the organization.<a href="#cite_note-22">[22]</a>

<ul><li><a href="Kalshi" title="Kalshi">Kalshi</a></li>

<li><a href="Intrade" title="Intrade">Intrade</a></li>

<li><a href="IPredict" title="IPredict">iPredict</a></li>

<li><a href="Metaculus" title="Metaculus">Metaculus</a></li></ul>

<div class="mw-heading mw-heading2"><h2 id="References">References</h2></div>

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</style><cite class="citation web cs1"><a rel="nofollow" class="external text" href="http://www.saintpetersblog.com/archives/165516">"New prediction market tabs Jeb Bush as frontrunner for 2016 GOP nomination"</a>. SaintPetersBlog. 3 November 2014. Retrieved 25 January 2015.</cite>

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<li id="cite_note-PredictIt_terms-2">^ <a href="#cite_ref-PredictIt_terms_2-0">a</a> <a href="#cite_ref-PredictIt_terms_2-1">b</a> <cite class="citation web cs1"><a rel="nofollow" class="external text" href="https://www.predictit.com/Home/TermsAndConditions">"Terms And Conditions"</a>. PredictIt. Retrieved 25 January 2015.</cite>

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<li id="cite_note-3"><a href="#cite_ref-3">^</a> <cite class="citation web cs1"><a rel="nofollow" class="external text" href="https://www.predictit.com/About/WhatIsPredictIT">"What Is PredictIt?"</a>. PredictIt. Retrieved 25 January 2015.</cite>

</li>

<li id="cite_note-WSJ-4">^ <a href="#cite_ref-WSJ_4-0">a</a> <a href="#cite_ref-WSJ_4-1">b</a> <cite id="CITEREFPatrick_O'Connor2015" class="citation news cs1">Patrick O'Connor (21 August 2015). <a rel="nofollow" class="external text" href="https://blogs.wsj.com/washwire/2015/08/21/online-exchange-shows-jeb-bush-as-the-gops-2016-favorite/">"Online Exchange Shows Jeb Bush as the GOP's 2016 Favorite"</a>. <a href="The_Wall_Street_Journal" title="The Wall Street Journal">The Wall Street Journal</a>. Retrieved 24 August 2015.</cite>

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<li id="cite_note-WSJ_gamble-5">^ <a href="#cite_ref-WSJ_gamble_5-0">a</a> <a href="#cite_ref-WSJ_gamble_5-1">b</a> <cite id="CITEREFJessica_Contrera2016" class="citation news cs1">Jessica Contrera (28 March 2016). <a rel="nofollow" class="external text" href="https://www.washingtonpost.com/lifestyle/style/heres-how-to-legally-gamble-on-the-2016-race/2016/03/28/14397dde-f1dc-11e5-85a6-2132cf446d0a_story.html">"Here's how to legally gamble on the 2016 race"</a>. <a href="The_Wall_Street_Journal" title="The Wall Street Journal">The Wall Street Journal</a>. Retrieved 17 November 2016.</cite>

</li>

<li id="cite_note-stock_market-6"><a href="#cite_ref-stock_market_6-0">^</a> <cite id="CITEREFBachman2014" class="citation news cs1">Bachman, Katy (31 October 2014). <a rel="nofollow" class="external text" href="https://www.politico.com/story/2014/10/predictit-online-politics-stock-market-112374">"Meet the 'stock market' for politics"</a>. Politico. Retrieved 15 November 2017.</cite>

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<li id="cite_note-7"><a href="#cite_ref-7">^</a> <cite id="CITEREFAndrew_McGill2016" class="citation news cs1">Andrew McGill (11 May 2016). <a rel="nofollow" class="external text" href="https://www.theatlantic.com/politics/archive/2016/05/the-people-who-still-bet-trump-wont-win-the-nomination/482148/">"The People Who (Still) Bet Trump Won't Win the Nomination"</a>. <a href="The_Atlantic" title="The Atlantic">The Atlantic</a>. Retrieved 17 November 2016.</cite>

</li>

<li id="cite_note-8"><a href="#cite_ref-8">^</a> <cite id="CITEREFRory_O'Connor2016" class="citation news cs1">Rory O'Connor (18 February 2016). <a rel="nofollow" class="external text" href="https://www.pbs.org/newshour/show/something-better-than-polls-for-political-predictions-you-bet">"Something better than polls for political predictions? You bet!"</a>. PBS NewsHour. PBS. Retrieved 17 November 2016.</cite>

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<li id="cite_note-PredictIt_how-9"><a href="#cite_ref-PredictIt_how_9-0">^</a> <cite class="citation web cs1"><a rel="nofollow" class="external text" href="https://www.predictit.com/About/HowItWorks">"How It Works"</a>. PredictIt. Retrieved 25 January 2015.</cite>

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<li id="cite_note-10"><a href="#cite_ref-10">^</a> <cite class="citation web cs1"><a rel="nofollow" class="external text" href="https://www.predictit.org/support/how-to-trade-on-predictit">"PredictIt"</a>. www.predictit.org.</cite>

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<li id="cite_note-11"><a href="#cite_ref-11">^</a> <cite class="citation web cs1"><a rel="nofollow" class="external text" href="https://www.predictit.org/markets/3/Biden-Administration">"PredictIt"</a>.</cite>

</li>

<li id="cite_note-12"><a href="#cite_ref-12">^</a> <cite class="citation web cs1"><a rel="nofollow" class="external text" href="https://www.predictit.org/markets/17/US-Elections">"PredictIt"</a>.</cite>

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<li id="cite_note-13"><a href="#cite_ref-13">^</a> <cite class="citation web cs1"><a rel="nofollow" class="external text" href="https://www.predictit.org/markets/2/Congress">"PredictIt"</a>.</cite>

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<li id="cite_note-14"><a href="#cite_ref-14">^</a> <cite class="citation web cs1"><a rel="nofollow" class="external text" href="https://www.predictit.org/markets/16/State-Local">"PredictIt"</a>.</cite>

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<li id="cite_note-15"><a href="#cite_ref-15">^</a> <cite class="citation web cs1"><a rel="nofollow" class="external text" href="https://www.predictit.org/markets/5/World">"PredictIt"</a>.</cite>

</li>

<li id="cite_note-16"><a href="#cite_ref-16">^</a> <cite class="citation web cs1"><a rel="nofollow" class="external text" href="https://www.predictit.org/markets/0?filterIds=61&sort=traded&sortParameter=TODAY">"PredictIt"</a>.</cite>

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<li id="cite_note-17"><a href="#cite_ref-17">^</a> <cite class="citation web cs1"><a rel="nofollow" class="external text" href="https://www.predictit.org/research">"Research Opportunities"</a>. PredictIt.org. Retrieved 2 October 2019.</cite>

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<li id="cite_note-CFTCrelease-18">^ <a href="#cite_ref-CFTCrelease_18-0">a</a> <a href="#cite_ref-CFTCrelease_18-1">b</a> <cite class="citation web cs1"><a rel="nofollow" class="external text" href="https://www.cftc.gov/PressRoom/PressReleases/7047-14">"CFTC Staff Provides No-Action Relief for Victoria University of Wellington, New Zealand, to Operate a Not-For-Profit Market for Event Contracts and to Offer Event Contracts to U.S. Persons"</a>. www.cftc.gov. U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission. 29 October 2014. <a rel="nofollow" class="external text" href="https://web.archive.org/web/20210422125811/https://www.cftc.gov/PressRoom/PressReleases/7047-14">Archived</a> from the original on 22 April 2021. Retrieved 1 June 2021.</cite>

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<li id="cite_note-Politico-19">^ <a href="#cite_ref-Politico_19-0">a</a> <a href="#cite_ref-Politico_19-1">b</a> <cite id="CITEREFKaty_Bachman2014" class="citation news cs1">Katy Bachman (31 October 2014). <a rel="nofollow" class="external text" href="https://www.politico.com/story/2014/10/predictit-online-politics-stock-market-112374.html">"Meet the 'stock market' for politics"</a>. Politico. Retrieved 25 January 2015.</cite>

</li>

<li id="cite_note-20"><a href="#cite_ref-20">^</a> <cite class="citation web cs1"><a rel="nofollow" class="external text" href="https://www.cftc.gov/PressRoom/PressReleases/8567-22">"CFTC Staff Withdraws No-Action Letter to Victoria University of Wellington, New Zealand Regarding a Not-For-Profit Market for Certain Event Contracts"</a>.</cite>

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<li id="cite_note-21"><a href="#cite_ref-21">^</a> <cite id="CITEREFTravis2022" class="citation pressrelease cs1">Travis, Brandi (6 October 2022). <a rel="nofollow" class="external text" href="https://www.globenewswire.com/en/news-release/2022/10/06/2530020/0/en/Additional-Plaintiffs-Join-Predictit-Lawsuit-Against-CFTC.html">"Additional Plaintiffs Join 'Predictit' Lawsuit Against CFTC"</a>. Global Newswire (Press release). Retrieved 1 November 2022.</cite>

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<li id="cite_note-22"><a href="#cite_ref-22">^</a> <cite id="CITEREFAristotle2023" class="citation pressrelease cs1">Aristotle (27 January 2023). <a rel="nofollow" class="external text" href="https://www.globenewswire.com/news-release/2023/01/27/2596580/0/en/Fifth-Circuit-Grants-Injunction-Allowing-PredictIt-Market-to-Continue-Operating.html">"Fifth Circuit Grants Injunction Allowing PredictIt Market to Continue Operating"</a>. GlobeNewswire News Room (Press release). Retrieved 27 January 2023.</cite>

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<div class="mw-heading mw-heading2"><h2 id="External_links">External links</h2></div>

<ul><li><a rel="nofollow" class="external text" href="https://www.predictit.org">Official website</a></li></ul></div><div><div class="zim-footer">

This article is issued from <a class="external text" title="Last edited on 2025-06-23" href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/?title=PredictIt&oldid=1297053327">Wikipedia</a>. The text is available under <a class="external text" href="https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-sa/4.0/deed.en">Creative Commons Attribution-Share Alike 4.0</a> unless otherwise noted. Additional terms may apply for the media files.

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